The growth rate of demand for power and energy storage batteries is expected to reach 30% in 2026, of which the growth rate of energy storage batteries will reach 40%-50%.

Judging from the data from January to August 2025, the monthly penetration rate of domestic new energy vehicles has remained stable at around 55%, and the proportion of EVs continues to rise. The core driving factor is the increase in 100kWh EVs and new vehicles with large-capacity extended range. The new penetration rate of energy storage batteries is far from the upper limit of optical storage parity. It is expected that the installed capacity will reach 170+GWh and 220+GWh in 2025 and 2026.

 

Analysis from a global perspective, combined with the resource endowments, policy guidance and the upper limit of optical storage parity in each region, the new installed capacity of energy storage batteries is expected to reach 1327GWh in 2030, corresponding to a compound growth rate of over 30%. Coupled with the demand for distribution and storage in the US data center, the growth space for global energy storage demand is extremely broad. In this context, how A-share investors can accurately seize industry opportunities deserves special attention.

01

Cathode materials: The revaluation of the value of phosphorus resources has accelerated, and the turning point of supply and demand has fully shown

that lithium battery cathode materials mainly cover ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate. The core raw materials of ternary materials are nickel, cobalt, lithium and other resource products, while lithium iron phosphate relies on significant cost-effective advantages, leading the development growth rate in recent years. The chemical materials involved in its industrial chain mainly include phosphate ore, industrial-grade ammonium phosphate, ferric phosphate and PVDF. The following focuses on analyzing the global supply and demand pattern of phosphate rock and iron phosphate.

The demand for phosphorus resources in the agricultural sector is rigid. With the growth of global population and the improvement of regional development levels, the demand for phosphate fertilizers has steadily increased. In the industrial field, in addition to traditional application scenarios such as flame retardants, refiners, and detergents, demand for new energy fields such as lithium iron phosphate and lithium hexafluorophosphate continues to explode, opening up broad growth space for the phosphorus chemical industry.

Phosphate rock: The phosphate rock industry is expected to maintain a high prosperity trend for a long time in the future. The prosperity of industrial-grade monoammonium phosphate continues to rise, and the price of iron phosphate is likely to usher in a major cycle turning point.

 

On the supply side, the expansion of overseas phosphate ore production capacity is limited. Although the domestic phosphate ore production capacity is large, the actual implementation progress is less than expected. Coupled with the gradual depletion of existing mines and the continued decline in ore grades. It is expected that global phosphate ore supply and demand will maintain a balanced pattern in the future., the industry is operating in a long-term prosperity.

From the demand side, due to factors such as large fluctuations in global food prices and international frictions, demand for phosphate fertilizers fluctuated greatly from 2020 to 2023. Subsequently, global demand for phosphate fertilizers is expected to return to a steady growth channel; at the same time, demand in the power battery and energy storage industries Driven by the demand, the demand for lithium iron phosphate and lithium hexafluorophosphate will maintain rapid growth, jointly driving the demand for phosphate ore to achieve a compound growth of 4%-5%.

Iron phosphate: Driven by the rapid release of demand in the downstream new energy sector, the price of iron phosphate will be at a high level in 2021-2022, which will lead to large-scale investment and expansion in the industry. Subsequently, it will lead to a serious oversupply. Prices have been depressed for two consecutive years, and a large number of proposed projects in the industry have been forced to cancel or suspend.

 

Since 2025, benefiting from the coordinated demand for power and energy storage dual tracks, the operating rate of the iron phosphate industry has rebounded rapidly. As of November of that year, the operating rate of the industry has risen to 83.4%. With the continued release of energy storage demand, the iron phosphate industry has broken through the turning point at the bottom of the cycle, and prices have entered a reverse upward channel.

02

Electrolyte materials: Prices continue to rise, and there is sufficient room for growth

. Lithium-ion battery electrolytes serve as the core carrier of battery ion transmission. They undertake the function of ion conduction between the positive and negative electrodes of lithium batteries and are one of the core raw materials of lithium ion batteries.

The electrolyte is mainly composed of lithium salts, organic solvents and additives. According to the proportion of mass, organic solvents account for 80%-90%, lithium salts account for 10%-15%, and additives account for about 5%; At the cost composition level, lithium salt solutes account for a higher proportion of the total cost of the electrolyte.

Lithium hexafluorophosphate (6F) is the core solute of the electrolyte. It has excellent ion migration number, dissociation constant, conductivity and electrochemical stability. It also has good oxidation resistance and aluminum foil passivation ability. It can be adapted to various types of positive and negative electrode materials occupy a key position in the electrolyte.

In terms of price, 6F has started to rise since the end of August 2025, and the increase has accelerated significantly after October. The price of bulk orders has climbed from the bottom of less than 50,000 yuan/ton to around 150,000 yuan/ton, and the price of orders from major customers has also shown a rising trend.

There are two main driving factors for the sharp rise in 6F prices in this round: First, demand for energy storage and commercial vehicles entered the peak season at the end of the year, and actual demand performance exceeded expectations; second, under the long-term low-price environment in the early stage, some high-cost 6F production capacity was successively shut down or overhauled, further exacerbating the short-term contradiction between supply and demand.

Looking forward to 2026, although some of the completed and unput production capacity and the shutdown of production capacity will release certain supply elasticity, the annual increase in 6F demand is expected to reach 80,000 - 90,000 tons, which is enough to absorb new supply, and the 6F production expansion cycle is long. For 1.5 years, the industry shortage pattern is expected to continue into 2027.

03

The outlet of lithium battery materials is prominent, and the layout opportunity coincides

with the explosive growth trend of downstream demand for lithium batteries. Terminal new energy vehicles, energy storage and other core tracks continue to expand, driving long-term high growth in the demand side of the industrial chain. The supply and demand pattern of upstream materials continues to optimize, the industry has officially entered the turning point of the big cycle, and the prosperity is expected to rise steadily.

At present, as the core upstream resource of lithium iron phosphate, phosphate rock continues to be prominent, the value revaluation process is accelerating, the superimposed industry production capacity structure continues to be optimized, and the premium effect of high-end products is significant.

In the future, as downstream demand continues to be released, the profit elasticity of upstream materials will be gradually released. Enterprises that deploy the phosphate rock, industrial-grade ammonium phosphate, iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate industrial chains will fully enjoy the upward dividends of the industry boom, have broad growth space, and have investment value. Outstanding, relevant targets are expected to achieve dual restoration of performance and valuation, and have extremely high layout value.

A review of the core listed companies with lithium battery materials is provided for reference. If you need more industry trends, you can scan the code to pay attention to the details.